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Individual Level Models of Infectious Disease Transmission For Animal Experiments

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Title: Individual Level Models of Infectious Disease Transmission For Animal Experiments
Author: Enns, Lea R.
Department: Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Program: Mathematics and Statistics
Advisor: Deardon, R.Feng, Z.
Abstract: The control of infectious disease transmission among animals is crucial in minimizing risk to public health. Typically, such diseases are controlled with the help of treatments, or vaccines. Through mathematical and statistical modelling, we can develop models that simulate the effects of treatment designs, and other variables, on disease spread, to gain perspective on their underlying characteristics. We present a series of four individual-level models (ILMs) to explore disease spread in animal experiments that are arranged in multiple sub-populations, such as pens or cages. Model parameters are then estimated within a Bayesian framework, using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Average posterior means and MSEs are used to compare and analyze the accuracy of parameter estimates and the trend in bias among varying sizes of the sub-populations.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10214/9398
Date: 2015-12


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