Main content

The impact of Neisseria meningitidis dynamic model structure on model predictions: comparing 2- and 4-strain models

Show full item record

Title: The impact of Neisseria meningitidis dynamic model structure on model predictions: comparing 2- and 4-strain models
Author: Poore, Keith
Department: Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Program: Biophysics
Advisor: Bauch, Chris
Abstract: Neisseria meningitidis is a pathogen that has many serogroups that impact human health. In order to model Neisseria meningitidis transmission dynamics, it is necessary to aggregate many of these serogroups into combined compartments to make modeling practical, but the aggregation influences the model predictions in ways that are not always known beforehand. The 2- and 4-strain models presented in this document explore the impact aggregation has on transmission models of Neisseria meningitidis, and predicted vaccine impact, when aggregated serogroups are used. The 2-strain model aggregates all serogroups into one of two groups, whereas the 4-strain model aggregates all serogroups into one of four groups. There are more complex dynamics found among strains in the 4-strain model than in the 2-strain model. The 4-strain model enters different basins of attraction, for both stable steady states and stable limit cycles, apparently due to the complexity of the strain interactions. The dynamics also led to observations of more rapid reduction in the 2-strain model, where the vaccine-targeted serogroup reduced much quicker in the 2-strain model than the 4-strain model. Modelers need to carefully weigh how and when to aggregate strains, in multi-strain transmission models.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10214/8624
Date: 2014-12
Rights: Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 Canada


Files in this item

Files Size Format View Description
Poore_Keith_201412_Msc.pdf 2.031Mb PDF View/Open Thesis document

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show full item record

Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 Canada Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 Canada