Adapting A Time-Dependent Vaccination Game to Mask Compliance

Abstract

In this work, we provide a granular view of factors affecting COVID-19 disease transmission across Ontario, Canada and the 34 public health units composing it. Using multi-linear regression, we determine the perceived risk of infection and personal discomfort of complying with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). With the use of sequential quadratic programming, we solve our general nonlinear programming problem to obtain our Nash equilibrium and further, the expected NPI compliance rate across Ontario from March to December 2020. Using an SEIRL compartmental model, we compute the basic reproduction number for each PHU as well as the effective reproduction number using the expected NPI compliance determined. Finally, we explore the limitations of our work, discuss the success of our computations and highlight possible avenues of further refinement.