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The Nexus of Government Risk Management Subsidies, Rates of Technological Change, Yield Resiliency, and On-Farm Climate Change Adaptation

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dc.contributor.advisor Ker, Alan Sente, Livia 2021-09-16T13:05:13Z 2021-09-16T13:05:13Z 2021-08 2021-08-24
dc.description.abstract The extent to which production agriculture adopts technologies that mitigate the impacts of climate change on crop yields will impact our ability to feed nine billion people by the year 2050. For many risk-averse farmers in developed countries, government business risk management programs help manage yield risks under a changing climate. I use a neural network to predict average county corn yields for Ontario and Iowa over the years 2022-2084 under various climate change scenarios. I also estimate rates of technological change, yield resiliency, and crop insurance premium rates in these predicted yield distributions using a normal mixture model. In both Ontario and Iowa, predicted yield distributions shift rightward and exhibit component divergence over time across climate scenarios. Strictly positive rates of technological change and variable Ontario county AgriInsurance premium rates suggest that funding AgriInsurance into the future may require a larger share of taxpayer dollars. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs; The Ivey Foundation; Professor Alan Ker at the Department of Food, Agricultural, and Resource Economics, Managing Editor of the Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Ontario Agricultural College Research Chair in Agricultural Risk and Policy, and Director of the Institute of Food and Agricultural Policy at the University of Guelph en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher University of Guelph en_US
dc.rights Attribution 4.0 International *
dc.rights.uri *
dc.subject Climate change en_US
dc.subject Crop yields en_US
dc.subject Crop insurance en_US
dc.subject Technological change in agriculture en_US
dc.subject Agricultural business risk management en_US
dc.subject Crop yield resiliency en_US
dc.subject Artificial neural network en_US
dc.subject Normal mixture model en_US
dc.subject Ontario production agriculture en_US
dc.subject Iowa production agriculture en_US
dc.title The Nexus of Government Risk Management Subsidies, Rates of Technological Change, Yield Resiliency, and On-Farm Climate Change Adaptation en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US Food, Agriculture and Resource Economics en_US Master of Science en_US Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics en_US University of Guelph en_US

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Attribution 4.0 International Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International