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Investigating the impact of climate change on exotic mosquito-borne diseases and their potential importation into Canada

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Title: Investigating the impact of climate change on exotic mosquito-borne diseases and their potential importation into Canada
Author: Sadeghieh, Tara
Department: Department of Population Medicine
Program: Population Medicine
Advisor: Sargeant, JanNg, Victoria
Abstract: This dissertation combines importation models with compartment models to investigate the impact of climate change on yellow fever (YF) and Zika virus disease (ZVD) in Brazil and their potential importation into Canada. A scoping review of the global literature on the modelling of vector-borne diseases, pathogens, reservoirs and vectors was conducted to describe methodologies, outcomes and diseases of interest to Canada. Compartment models were used to describe the 2017/18 YF and 2016 ZVD outbreaks and estimate the impact of climate change on these diseases under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, for the years 2011 – 2040, 2041 – 2070, and 2071 – 2100. An importation model was used to investigate the potential importation of YF and ZVD under the same future climate conditions. Important findings from this dissertation include, first, that climate-related parameters are important in mosquito-borne disease modelling, and that standardized reporting guidelines for manuscripts of mathematical models would better the reproducibility of an author’s work. Second, temperature impacts on disease transmission and spread will vary between diseases. The impacts were different for YF and ZVD, where the impact of temperature reduced the estimated incidence of YF cases in Brazil, while increasing incidence estimates for ZVD. Third, the importation of mosquito-borne diseases into Canada are likely to increase; however, the scale of the increase depends on the magnitude and duration of the outbreak in the country of origin (which is dependent on population immunity through natural infection or the presence of a vaccine). As the risk of imported cases coincides with some of the months when local transmission could occur in Canada (June and July), there are implications for the risk of imported cases initiating local transmission and possible impacts on local healthcare. The impact of climate change on the imported cases of two exotic mosquito-borne diseases was investigated from only one country to Canada. Therefore, the impact of climate change on imported cases of exotic mosquito-borne diseases into Canada could be substantial for importation from all countries where these diseases are endemic.
Date: 2021-05
Rights: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Related Publications: Sadeghieh, T., Sargeant, J., Greer, A., Berke, O., Dueymes, G., Gachon, P., Ogden, N., & Ng, V. (2021). Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate. Infectious Disease Modelling, 6, 664–677., T., Waddell, L., Ng, V., Hall, A., & Sargeant, J. (2020). A scoping review of importation and predictive models related to vector-borne diseases, pathogens, reservoirs, or vectors (1999-2016). PloS One, 15(1), e0227678–e0227678.

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International