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ATQ: Alarm time quality, an evaluation metric for assessing timely epidemic detection models within a school absenteeism-based surveillance system

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dc.contributor.advisor Feng, Zeny
dc.contributor.advisor Deeth, Lorna
dc.contributor.author Vanderkruk, Kayla
dc.date.accessioned 2021-05-19T15:48:06Z
dc.date.copyright 2021-04-26
dc.date.created 2021-04-26
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10214/25763
dc.description.abstract Model-based school absenteeism surveillance systems have been proposed to raise seasonal influenza epidemic alarms. Previous studies used metrics such as false alarm rate (FAR) and accumulated days delayed, for model evaluation and selection, however they were unable to optimize both alarm accuracy and timeliness. In this study, we developed a metric, alarm time quality (ATQ), that simultaneously evaluated both aspects by assessing alarms on a gradient, where alarms raised incrementally before or after an optimal time were informative, but penalized. Summary statistics of ATQ, average alarm time quality (AATQ) and first alarm time quality (FATQ), were used as model selection criterion. Alarms raised by ATQ and FAR-selected logistic regression models were compared. Daily school absenteeism and laboratory-confirmed influenza data collected by Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health was used for demonstration. A simulation study representative of Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph was conducted for further evaluation. ATQ-selected models were found to raise alarms that were timelier than the FAR-selected model. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher University of Guelph en_US
dc.subject Absenteeism surveillance system en_US
dc.subject Influenza en_US
dc.subject Epidemic detection en_US
dc.subject Simulation study en_US
dc.subject Evaluation metric en_US
dc.title ATQ: Alarm time quality, an evaluation metric for assessing timely epidemic detection models within a school absenteeism-based surveillance system en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US
dc.degree.programme Mathematics and Statistics en_US
dc.degree.name Master of Science en_US
dc.degree.department Department of Mathematics and Statistics en_US
dc.description.embargo 2022-04-25
dc.rights.license All items in the Atrium are protected by copyright with all rights reserved unless otherwise indicated.
dc.degree.grantor University of Guelph en_US


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