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The Evaluation of Statistical Models in Water Quality Constituents Load Estimation in Southern Ontario, Canada

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Title: The Evaluation of Statistical Models in Water Quality Constituents Load Estimation in Southern Ontario, Canada
Author: Goswami, Anant
Department: School of Engineering
Program: Engineering
Advisor: Daggupati, Prasad
Abstract: The accurate representation of the water quality constituents load transported by rivers and streams is crucial to understand the quality of the lakes, the behavior of the rivers, to assess the efficacy of water quality monitoring projects, and for the development of watershed models. Numerous statistical models have been developed to predict the water-quality constituent loads from the available data of sampled concentration and continuous discharge at a particular sampled location and to further analyze trends and changes in water quality. However, the performance of statistical models to estimate water quality constituent loads depends on many aspects including the type of water quality constituent, discharge-concentration relationship, sampling strategy and frequency, and the watershed area. This study evaluates the performance of a wide range of statistical models for the estimation of total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) loads under various sampling scenarios and monitoring stations in Southern Ontario, Canada. Trends in TSS and TP concentrations and loads were further analyzed in major tributaries. The Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season Kalman Filter (WRTDS_K) model was found to be the most suitable model for predicting TSS loads at most sampling stations and under most sampling scenarios, while, the Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model was found to be the most suitable model for predicting TP loads. No statistical models showed the potential to predict accurate load estimates at monitoring stations with small drainage areas. Trend analysis over major tributaries revealed that trends in TSS concentrations and loads were found to be highly variable among tributaries, while, there was a significant decline in TP concentrations and loads over major tributaries. However, TSS and TP concentration levels in most tributaries were found to be significantly higher than the PWQMN objectives.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10214/23705
Date: 2021-01
Rights: Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
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Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International