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Evaluating Water Quantity and Quality in Historic, Current and Future Conditions in Northern Lake Erie Basin

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Title: Evaluating Water Quantity and Quality in Historic, Current and Future Conditions in Northern Lake Erie Basin
Author: jafarianlari, fahimeh
Department: School of Engineering
Program: Modelling Applications in Water Resources Engineering
Advisor: Daggupati, Prasad
Abstract: EVALUATING WATER QUANTITY AND QUALITY IN HISTORIC, CURRENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN LAKE ERIE BASIN Fahimeh Jafarianlari Advisor: University of Guelph, 2020 Prasad Daggupati In the last two decades, phosphorus loads resulting from agricultural activities in watersheds contributing to Lake Erie have resulted in increased algal blooms in the lake. In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to study Spatio-temporal changes in water quantity and water quality in historical, current, mid and end centuries in Northern Lake Erie Basin (NLEB) which drains into Lake Erie from the Canadian side. The model was calibrated/validated for crop, flow, sediment, and nutrients (total phosphorus [TP]) in the baseline. Downscaled projected precipitation and temperature data from the MPI-ESM-LR model was used to assess nutrient loads from NLEB under climate-change for three sub-periods within the 21st century using the calibrated model. The results of this study indicated the temperature increases steadily and the entire basin will experience wet conditions in the Mid-century. In the end century, the TP loads were lowest in the entire watershed.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10214/17990
Date: 2020-05-27
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Embargoed Until: 2021-04-01


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