Evaluating the pandemic potential of MERS-CoV

The emergence in 2012 of a new disease-causing coronavirus has generated substantial concern. As of June 26, 2013, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) had caused 77 laboratory-confirmed cases and 40 deaths. The virus is related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) that emerged in 2002–03. And, as SARS-CoV had during its prepandemic stage, MERS-CoV has probably been transmitted from an unknown animal host to human beings repeatedly in the past year. Cases of human-to-human transmission have also been documented in several countries. This raises an important question: does MERS-CoV have the potential to cause a pandemic?