Main content

Scheduling of measles vaccination in low-income countries: Projections of a dynamic model

Show full item record

Title: Scheduling of measles vaccination in low-income countries: Projections of a dynamic model
Author: Bauch, C.T.; Szusz, E.; Garrison, L.P.
Abstract: Large-scale vaccination campaigns (SIAs) and improved routine immunization (RI) have greatly reduced measles incidence in low-income countries. However, the interval between SIAs required to maintain these gains over the long term is not clear. We developed a dynamic model of measles transmission to assess measles vaccination strategies in Cambodia, Ghana, India, Morocco, Nigeria, and Uganda. We projected measles cases from 2008 to 2050 under (a) holding SIAs every 2, 4, 6, or 8 years, (b) improvements in first dose routine measles vaccine (MCV1) coverage of 0%, 1%, 3% annually, and (c) introducing MCV2 once MCV1 coverage reaches 70%, 80%, 90%. If MCV1 continues improving, then India and Nigeria could hold SIAs every 4 years without significant probability of large outbreaks, and the other countries every 6–8 years. If RI remains stagnant, India and Nigeria should hold SIAs every 2 years, and the other countries every 4–6 years.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10214/14320
Date: 2009
Rights: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Rights Holder: Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Citation: Bauch, C.T., Szusz, E., and Garrison, L.P. (2009). Scheduling of measles vaccination in low-income countries: Projections of a dynamic model. Vaccine. 27(31): 4090-4098. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2009.04.079


Files in this item

Files Size Format View Description
BauchEtAl_MeaslesVac.pdf 1.302Mb PDF View/Open Postprint version.

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show full item record

Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International