A dynamic model for assessing universal Hepatitis A vaccination in Canada

Abstract

Vaccination against Hepatitis A virus (HAV) in Canada is currently targeted toward high-risk groups. However, universal vaccination has been adopted in several other countries with a similar disease burden. Here we develop an age-structured compartmental model of HAV transmission and vaccination in Canada to assess potential universal vaccination strategies. The model predicts that universal vaccination at age 1 (respectively 4, 9, 15), with phasing out of targeted vaccination, would reduce reported incidence by 60% (respectively 52%, 36%, 31%) and mortality attributable to HAV by 56% (respectively 45%, 26%, 25%), relative to continued targeted vaccination, over eighty years.