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Effects of Disease Outbreak on the Ontario Pork Industry

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Title: Effects of Disease Outbreak on the Ontario Pork Industry
Author: Haque, Syer
Department: Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics
Program: Food, Agriculture and Resource Economics
Advisor: Ker, Alan
Abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to estimate the economic consequences of a disease outbreak on the Ontario pork industry. The thesis uses a partial equilibrium model to simulate disease outbreak scenarios and observe its effects on the industry in the short run. The study uses the hog value chain as its basis for constructing the model. The hog value chain encompasses the entire pork industry starting from the decision of the breeding herd size to pork consumption. The constructed model is comprised of 8 regression equations containing a total of 29 estimated parameters (16 in the live pigs market and 13 in processed pork market) and 6 identities of which 2 are market clearing identities. This thesis considers two disease outbreak scenarios with varying level of trade restriction. Regression results and simulations conducted reveal closing the US borders would result in the hog slaughter going up slightly within Ontario along with significantly higher interprovincial trade of live pigs. Pork production would go up slightly because of the slight increase in the hog slaughter. Ontario being a net importer of pork, trade restrictions from the US would result in lower provincial imports for Ontario. The main takeaway from this study is, as long as CFIA recognized provincial zoning is acknowledged, meaning Ontario can trade with the other provinces and these provinces can trade with the US there won't be major consequences to the Ontario pork industry.
Date: 2017-12
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