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An Economic Analysis of Potential Benefits of Livestock Traceability Systems for Trade Embargo Scenarios that are Linked to Animal Disease Outbreak Durations

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Title: An Economic Analysis of Potential Benefits of Livestock Traceability Systems for Trade Embargo Scenarios that are Linked to Animal Disease Outbreak Durations
Author: Yang, Lin; Yang, Lin
Department: Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics
Program: Food, Agriculture and Resource Economics
Advisor: Boecker, AndreasBoecker, Andreas
Abstract: A mandatory livestock traceability system with three proposed animal movement reporting options is under discussion by the Canadian federal, provincial and territorial governments. This thesis contributes to a better understanding of potential benefits of the enhanced traceability system in case of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. For each proposed option, an epidemiological stochastic disease model that simulates a FMD outbreak in Alberta is paired with a partial equilibrium model developed for the Ontario cattle and beef industry to estimate the reduction in trade embargo losses resulting from the disease outbreak compared to the current level of traceability capacity. Results indicate that the potential trade-embargo related benefits of the three proposed options range from $7 million to $15 million on average. However, depending on different disease outbreak scenarios, the benefits can range from $2 million to $51 million.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10214/10019
Date: 2016-09
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