Export Spells and Agri-food Exports, Evidence from Canada

Refaat, Kareem
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University of Guelph

This thesis continues the works related to the study of trade spell duration by looking at it from the perspective of Canadian agri-food exports, with an objective of estimating the variables that determine trade spell duration. I use the Canadian International Merchandise Trade Database for years 1988-2017 to estimate the Kaplan Meier Survival function and discrete time model. The thesis looks at variables that affect trade spell duration, with particular focus on Free Trade Agreements (FTA), non-tariff barriers (NTB), export value, processed foods, and tariffs. The results show that Canadian FTAs have little relation on agri-food export spell durations, but other variables such as NTB’s and processed nature of foods are significantly associated with trade spells. The theory of negative duration dependence is witnessed in the models, in that trade relationships that last passed the initial few years have lower likelihood of failure as time progresses.

spells, agri-food exports, trade spells, trade spell duration, export spells, Kareem, Refaat, FTA, Free trade agreements