The Impact of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture: A Parcel Level Ricardian Analysis

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Kimmerer, Christopher
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University of Guelph

The Ricardian approach is a popular method for estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture. This approach uses a cross section of farmland values to estimate the relation- ship between climate and agricultural production. Typically, Ricardian studies use county average farmland value data. This requires researchers to aggregate climate and other data up to the same level. By not controlling for sub-county variation in climate and farmland values, the Ricardian approach could be influenced by county level unobservables. I use a sample of plot level Canadian farmland values to estimates the first Ricardian impacts of climate change on Canadian agriculture in over fifteen years. I specifically account for sub-county variation within the dataset through the addition of county level fixed effects. I find that the impact of climate change on Canadian agriculture over the next 60-80 years will be small.

Climate Change, Agriculture, Farmland Values, Ricardian