The Nexus of Government Risk Management Subsidies, Rates of Technological Change, Yield Resiliency, and On-Farm Climate Change Adaptation

dc.contributor.advisorKer, Alan
dc.contributor.authorSente, Livia of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economicsen_US of Guelphen_US of Scienceen_US, Agriculture and Resource Economicsen_US
dc.description.abstractThe extent to which production agriculture adopts technologies that mitigate the impacts of climate change on crop yields will impact our ability to feed nine billion people by the year 2050. For many risk-averse farmers in developed countries, government business risk management programs help manage yield risks under a changing climate. I use a neural network to predict average county corn yields for Ontario and Iowa over the years 2022-2084 under various climate change scenarios. I also estimate rates of technological change, yield resiliency, and crop insurance premium rates in these predicted yield distributions using a normal mixture model. In both Ontario and Iowa, predicted yield distributions shift rightward and exhibit component divergence over time across climate scenarios. Strictly positive rates of technological change and variable Ontario county AgriInsurance premium rates suggest that funding AgriInsurance into the future may require a larger share of taxpayer dollars.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipOntario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs
dc.description.sponsorshipThe Ivey Foundation
dc.description.sponsorshipProfessor Alan Ker at the Department of Food, Agricultural, and Resource Economics, Managing Editor of the Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Ontario Agricultural College Research Chair in Agricultural Risk and Policy, and Director of the Institute of Food and Agricultural Policy at the University of Guelph
dc.publisherUniversity of Guelphen_US
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectCrop yieldsen_US
dc.subjectCrop insuranceen_US
dc.subjectTechnological change in agricultureen_US
dc.subjectAgricultural business risk managementen_US
dc.subjectCrop yield resiliencyen_US
dc.subjectArtificial neural networken_US
dc.subjectNormal mixture modelen_US
dc.subjectOntario production agricultureen_US
dc.subjectIowa production agricultureen_US
dc.titleThe Nexus of Government Risk Management Subsidies, Rates of Technological Change, Yield Resiliency, and On-Farm Climate Change Adaptationen_US


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