Water quality evaluation under climate change impacts for Canagagigue Creek watershed in southern Ontario
With SDSM downscaling based on historical weather data, this thesis develops the future weather scenario with climate change consideration during 2015-2044, and then uses the scenario as input to the calibrated and validated hydrologic model, SWAT for water quantity and quality analysis, focusing on stream flow, sediment erosion and transportation at a watershed level. This thesis concludes that SDSM is able to simulate the daily historical temperature more efficiently than daily precipitation. Warmer winters and hotter summers may be expected during 2015-2044; higher mean and variance of the amounts of precipitation in summer may be expected without statistic significance; the future stream flows may have longer low flow periods extending from summer to fall, and severe annual water resources deficiency may be highly possible during 2015-2044 due to increased evapotranspiration. As a result, sediment transport capacity of reaches may decrease, and thus sediment deposition may be common phenomena.