Using individual-level models to model spatio-temporal combustion dynamics

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Vrbik, Irene
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University of Guelph
Abstract

Individual-level models (ILMs), as defined by Deardon et al. (2010), are a class of models originally designed to model the spread of infectious disease. However, they can also be considered as a tool for modelling the spatio-temporal dynamics of fire. We consider the much simplified problem of modelling the combustion dynamics on a piece of wax paper under relatively controlled conditions. The models are fitted in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The focus here is on choosing a model that best fits the combustion pattern.

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individual-level models, spatio-temporal dynamics, fire, combustion dynamics, combustion patterns
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