A model of highly pathogenic avian influenza with environmental reservoir and vaccine intervention in broilers in an all-in-all-out housing system
Avian influenza is a subtype of the influenza A virus which emerged as a highly infectious disease in the 1980's and has caused mass fatalities throughout the poultry industry. Domesticated birds, and specifically broilers, which are birds raised for meat consumption, can become infected and spread the pathogen rapidly due to the birds genetics and environment. Thus, the use of interventions such as biosecurity and vaccination are very important. The objective of this project was to develop an original model to study highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in broilers and to analyze the effects such as interventions of cleaning and vaccination. An SIR model was developed with the addition of an environmental reservoir to better study the spread of the influenza pathogen. The model was then extended to include the addition of an imperfect vaccine. The model and vaccination model were analyzed for stability and sensitivity of parameters. Economic values play a large role in the poultry industry and have a large influence on decision-making. An economic analysis was done to determine the monetary impact of an imperfect vaccine versus no vaccine intervention. Due to the high variability in avian influenza vaccine efficacy and their significant cost, vaccination is not always the best option financially.