Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) and Porcine Deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) in Ontario: Incidence, Prevalence, and Forecasting of Cases and Trends

dc.contributor.advisorPoljak, Zvonimir
dc.contributor.authorAjayi, Toluwalope
dc.date.accessioned2017-12-12T13:50:15Z
dc.date.available2018-12-12T06:00:15Z
dc.date.copyright2017-11
dc.date.created2017-11-13
dc.date.issued2017-12-12
dc.degree.departmentDepartment of Population Medicineen_US
dc.degree.grantorUniversity of Guelphen_US
dc.degree.nameMaster of Scienceen_US
dc.degree.programmePopulation Medicineen_US
dc.description.abstractThis thesis is an investigation into measures of disease frequency for Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) and Porcine Deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) in Ontario, as well as outbreak forecasts for Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) in Ontario. Surveillance data from an industry-administered voluntary disease control program (DCP) were analysed to obtain estimates of incidence risk, incidence rate, and prevalence for Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) and Porcine Deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) between 2014 and 2016. The results indicate an overall decline in disease frequency measures, from a prevalence of 4.36% to 1.35% and 0.48% to 0.16% from 2014 to 2016, for PEDV and PDCoV respectively. For PEDV outbreak forecasts, incidence as well as prevalence and weather data were trained on Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest, and Artificial Neural Network models. The Random Forest model provided the best prediction for long-term PEDV trends, with the variable importance measure pointing to prevalence and low temperature as strong determinants for future PEDV outbreaks.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10214/12063
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherUniversity of Guelphen_US
dc.rights.licenseAll items in the Atrium are protected by copyright with all rights reserved unless otherwise indicated.
dc.subjectporcine epidemic diarrheaen_US
dc.subjectporcine deltacoronavirusen_US
dc.subjectdisease surveillanceen_US
dc.subjectdisease forecastingen_US
dc.subjectrandom foresten_US
dc.subjectclassification and regression treesen_US
dc.subjectartificial neural networksen_US
dc.titlePorcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) and Porcine Deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) in Ontario: Incidence, Prevalence, and Forecasting of Cases and Trendsen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Ajayi_Toluwalope_201712_MSc.pdf
Size:
2.5 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
MSc Thesis - Toluwalope Ajayi