Misspecifying latent and infectious periods in space-time epidemic models

dc.contributor.advisorDeardon, Rob
dc.contributor.authorHabibzadeh, Babak
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-03T18:08:38Z
dc.date.available2020-12-03T18:08:38Z
dc.date.copyright2009
dc.degree.departmentDepartment of Mathematics and Statisticsen_US
dc.degree.grantorUniversity of Guelphen_US
dc.degree.nameMaster of Scienceen_US
dc.description.abstractIndividual level models (ILMs) have been applied to infectious epidemic data to understand spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious diseases. Typically, these models are analysed in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We test the effect of misspecifying the latent and infectious period of an infectious disease in the model. This is done by simulating data from a true model, and fitting various misspecified models. Consequences are examined through two measures: first, we observe how the basic reproduction number, 'R'0, behaves as latent and infectious periods are varied; second, how optimal vaccination strategies: developed via simulation studies, are affected. As latent and infectious periods become more misspecified there is significant deviation in estimates of ' R'0 from its true value. Where the misspecification results in a higher 'R'0 estimate, we naturally find that there needs to be a more stringent vaccination policy, and vice versa.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10214/21815
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherUniversity of Guelphen_US
dc.rights.licenseAll items in the Atrium are protected by copyright with all rights reserved unless otherwise indicated.
dc.subjectindividual level modelsen_US
dc.subjectinfectious epidemic dataen_US
dc.subjectspatiotemporal dynamicsen_US
dc.subjectinfectious diseasesen_US
dc.subjectlatent perioden_US
dc.subjectinfectious perioden_US
dc.subjectreproduction numberen_US
dc.subjectvaccination strategiesen_US
dc.subjectsimulationen_US
dc.subjectmisspecificationen_US
dc.titleMisspecifying latent and infectious periods in space-time epidemic modelsen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US

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